Towards Causal Modeling of Human Behavior

This article proposes experiments on decision making based on the "Winter Survival Task", one of the scenarios most commonly applied in behavioral and psychological studies. The goal of the Task is to identify, out of a predefined list of 12 items, those that are most likely to increase the chances of survival after the crash of a plane in a polar area. In our experiments, 60 pairs of unacquainted individuals (120 subjects in total) negotiate a common choice of the items to be retained after that each subject has performed the task individually. The results of the negotiations are analyzed in causal terms and show that the choices made by the subjects individually act as a causal factor with respect to the outcome of the negotiation.