Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

Alasdair Skelton; Erik Sturkell; Carl Magnus Mörth; Gabrielle Stockmann; Sigurjón Jónsson; Andri Stefansson; Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson; Niklas Wästeby; Margareta Andrén; Elin Tollefsen; Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin; Nicole Keller; Halldór Geirsson; Hreinn Hjartarson; Ingrid Kockum

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3

Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

Alasdair Skelton^*, Erik Sturkell, Carl Magnus Mörth, Gabrielle Stockmann, Sigurjón Jónsson, Andri Stefansson, Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson, Niklas Wästeby, Margareta Andrén, Elin Tollefsen, Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin, Nicole Keller, Halldór Geirsson, Hreinn Hjartarson, Ingrid Kockum

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	662
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3
State	Published - Dec 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Environmental Science
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3

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Skelton, A., Sturkell, E., Mörth, C. M., Stockmann, G., Jónsson, S., Stefansson, A., Liljedahl‐Claesson, L., Wästeby, N., Andrén, M., Tollefsen, E., Gunnarsson Robin, J., Keller, N., Geirsson, H., Hjartarson, H., & Kockum, I. (2024). Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry. Communications Earth and Environment, 5(1), Article 662. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3

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title = "Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry",

abstract = "An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.",

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Skelton, A, Sturkell, E, Mörth, CM, Stockmann, G, Jónsson, S, Stefansson, A, Liljedahl‐Claesson, L, Wästeby, N, Andrén, M, Tollefsen, E, Gunnarsson Robin, J, Keller, N, Geirsson, H, Hjartarson, H & Kockum, I 2024, 'Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry', Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 5, no. 1, 662. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3

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T1 - Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

AU - Skelton, Alasdair

AU - Sturkell, Erik

AU - Mörth, Carl Magnus

AU - Stockmann, Gabrielle

AU - Jónsson, Sigurjón

AU - Stefansson, Andri

AU - Liljedahl‐Claesson, Lillemor

AU - Wästeby, Niklas

AU - Andrén, Margareta

AU - Tollefsen, Elin

AU - Gunnarsson Robin, Jóhann

AU - Keller, Nicole

AU - Geirsson, Halldór

AU - Hjartarson, Hreinn

AU - Kockum, Ingrid

PY - 2024/12

Y1 - 2024/12

N2 - An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.

AB - An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.

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Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

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