The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: The case of Bay of Biscay anchovy

Eider Andonegi*, Jose Antonio Fernandes, Iaki Quincoces, Xabier Irigoien, Andrs Uriarte, Aritz Pérez, Daniel Howell, Gunnar Stefnsson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations


The European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) is a short-lived pelagic species distributed in Atlantic European waters, with the Bay of Biscay being one of the main centres of abundance. Because it is a short-lived species, the state of the stock is determined largely by incoming recruitment. Recruitment is highly variable and depends on a variety of factors, such as the size of the spawning stock and environmental conditions in the area. The use of a coupled model that could serve to predict the evolution of the anchovy stock in the short, medium, and long term under several fishing-pressure scenarios and given climate scenarios is demonstrated. This coupled model consists of a Gadget (Globally Applicable Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) model that was used to analyse the status of the Bay of Biscay anchovy population and to simulate future scenarios based on the estimated recruitment levels, combined with a probabilistic Bayesian network model for recruitment estimation based on machine-learning methods and using climatic indices as potential forecasting factors. The results indicate that certain combinations of medium to high fishing pressure and adverse environmental conditions could force the stock outside its biological reference boundaries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1257-1269
Number of pages13
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jul 2011
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was done with financial support from the European Commission (Contract No. 022717, UNCOVER: Understanding the mechanisms of stock recovery and Contract No. 212085, MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment), supported within Theme 6: Environment of the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. The conclusions do not necessarily reflect Commission views and in no way anticipate the Commission’s future policy in this area. We also thank the Fisheries and Agriculture Department of the Basque Government for financial support, in particular for the ECOANCHOA and ECOSISTEMA projects, and the University of the Basque Country for technical support. JAF was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Fundación Centros Tecnológicos Iñaki Goenaga. We acknowledge in particular Leire Ibaibarriaga (AZTI-Tecnalia), two anonymous referees, and the guest editor for their helpful comments and support. This paper is contribution number 514 from AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division).


  • Bay of Biscay
  • Bayesian networks
  • Gadget
  • anchovy
  • climate
  • recruitment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology


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