The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, Thomas H. Jordan, Yosihiko Ogata, David D. Jackson, Sum Mak, David A. Rhoades, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Naoshi Hirata, Maria Liukis, Philip J. Maechling, Anne Strader, Matteo Taroni, Stefan Wiemer, Jeremy D. Zechar, Jiancang Zhuang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

81 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1305-1313
Number of pages9
JournalSeismological Research Letters
Volume89
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 13 2018
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2020-10-01
Acknowledged KAUST grant number(s): URF/1/2160-01-01
Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank Peter Bird, Zhigang Peng, and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments to improve the article. The authors also want to thank the wider Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) community for their participation and all of their work. Finally, the authors thank the open-source community for providing many tools used in this work. CSEP was established under a grant from the W. M. Keck Foundation and has been supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) under National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G12AC20038. SCEC Contribution Number 8036. This work was supported by the New Zealand Strategic Science Investment Fund, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) research Grant Number URF/1/2160-01-01.
This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

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