Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

Casey Saenger; Anne L. Cohen; Delia W. Oppo; Robert B. Halley; Jessica E. Carilli

doi:10.1038/ngeo552

Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

Casey Saenger, Anne L. Cohen, Delia W. Oppo, Robert B. Halley, Jessica E. Carilli

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

119 Scopus citations

Abstract

Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	492-495
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	2
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo552
State	Published - Jun 21 2009
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2020-10-01
Acknowledgements: We thank T. Crowley, P. Huybers, P. Chang, Y. Kwon, J. Woodruff, J. T. Farrar, N. Goodkin and G. Hegerl for discussion. We also thank D. Ketten and J. Arruda for CAT scan support and R. Petitt for initial growth measurements. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation, WHOI's Ocean and Climate Change Institute, WHOI's Ocean Life Institute, award No. USA-0002, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and the Inter-American Institute Global Change Research.
This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/ngeo552

Cite this

@article{764fbe8073d6402f9f0c1a28eeef6508,

title = "Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552",

abstract = "Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. {\textcopyright} 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.",

author = "Casey Saenger and Cohen, {Anne L.} and Oppo, {Delia W.} and Halley, {Robert B.} and Carilli, {Jessica E.}",

note = "KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2020-10-01 Acknowledgements: We thank T. Crowley, P. Huybers, P. Chang, Y. Kwon, J. Woodruff, J. T. Farrar, N. Goodkin and G. Hegerl for discussion. We also thank D. Ketten and J. Arruda for CAT scan support and R. Petitt for initial growth measurements. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation, WHOI's Ocean and Climate Change Institute, WHOI's Ocean Life Institute, award No. USA-0002, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and the Inter-American Institute Global Change Research. This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.",

year = "2009",

month = jun,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1038/ngeo552",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "2",

pages = "492--495",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "7",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

AU - Saenger, Casey

AU - Cohen, Anne L.

AU - Oppo, Delia W.

AU - Halley, Robert B.

AU - Carilli, Jessica E.

N1 - KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2020-10-01 Acknowledgements: We thank T. Crowley, P. Huybers, P. Chang, Y. Kwon, J. Woodruff, J. T. Farrar, N. Goodkin and G. Hegerl for discussion. We also thank D. Ketten and J. Arruda for CAT scan support and R. Petitt for initial growth measurements. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation, WHOI's Ocean and Climate Change Institute, WHOI's Ocean Life Institute, award No. USA-0002, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and the Inter-American Institute Global Change Research. This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

PY - 2009/6/21

Y1 - 2009/6/21

N2 - Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

AB - Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10754/599819

UR - http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo552

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=68149183563&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/ngeo552

DO - 10.1038/ngeo552

M3 - Article

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 2

SP - 492

EP - 495

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 7

ER -

Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this