Statistical analysis of extreme temperatures in India in the period 1951–2020

Flavio Ferraz Vieira, Manuela Oliveira, Marco Aurélio Sanfins, Eugénio Garção, Hari Prasad Dasari, Venkata Dodla, G. C. Satyanarayana, Joaquim Costa, José G. Borges

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Extreme temperatures are directly related to the occurrence of atmospheric extreme events, such as draughts, wildfires, and pollution level increases in urban areas. Policy makers, as well as society, can address such phenomenon by developing and applying methods which estimate and anticipate maximum temperature occurrences. In this research, we aim to develop a spatiotemporal model which analyzes maximum temperature trends values in the Indian 543 microregions between 1951 and 2020. In 27% of those, a maximum temperature above 45∘C was observed, at least in a year. Our analysis indicates further that 80% microregions have maximum temperatures above above 40∘C. Additionally, the results unveiled that East, Southwest, and Northwest microregions were the ones where the maximum temperatures had a higher increase with 2∘C being the average. The model developed is based on a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) methodology, to estimate the maximum temperature values from 20 and 50 years. The projection for 20 years showed that in 15.83% of those microregions, at least one occurrence of a maximum temperature above 45∘C would occur; while in 50 years, it would happen in 21.54% of the microregions analyzed.
Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 22 2023

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-03-29
Acknowledgements: Open access funding provided by FCT—FCCN (b-on). This research is partially supported by National Funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal (UIDB/04674/2020 (CIMA)) and by the project ref. H2020-MSCARISE- 2020/101007950, with the title “DecisionES - Decision Support for the Supply of Ecosystem Services under Global Change”, funded by the Marie Curie International Staff Exchange Scheme. JC This research is partially supported by project UID/MAT/00144/2019 (CMUP), funded by The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology with national MCTES and European structural funds through the program FEDER, under the partnership agreement PT2020. JGB This research was partially funded by the Forest Research Centre, a research unit funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. (FCT), Portugal (UIDB/00239 /2020) and and by the project ref. H2020-MSCA-RISE-2020/101007950, with the title “DecisionES - Decision Support for the Supply of Ecosystem Services under Global Change”, funded by the Marie Curie International Staff Exchange Scheme.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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