Predictive Accuracy of Stroke Risk Prediction Models Across Black and White Race, Sex, and Age Groups

Chuan Hong, Michael J. Pencina, Daniel M. Wojdyla, Jennifer L. Hall, Suzanne E. Judd, Michael Cary, Matthew M. Engelhard, Samuel Berchuck, Ying Xian, Ralph D'Agostino, George Howard, Brett Kissela, Ricardo Henao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Scopus citations

Abstract

Importance: Stroke is the fifth-highest cause of death in the US and a leading cause of serious long-term disability with particularly high risk in Black individuals. Quality risk prediction algorithms, free of bias, are key for comprehensive prevention strategies. Objective: To compare the performance of stroke-specific algorithms with pooled cohort equations developed for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease for the prediction of new-onset stroke across different subgroups (race, sex, and age) and to determine the added value of novel machine learning techniques. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study on combined and harmonized data from Black and White participants of the Framingham Offspring, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), Multi-Ethnic Study for Atherosclerosis (MESA), and Reasons for Geographical and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) studies (1983-2019) conducted in the US. The 62482 participants included at baseline were at least 45 years of age and free of stroke or transient ischemic attack. Exposures: Published stroke-specific algorithms from Framingham and REGARDS (based on self-reported risk factors) as well as pooled cohort equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease plus 2 newly developed machine learning algorithms. Main Outcomes and Measures: Models were designed to estimate the 10-year risk of new-onset stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic). Discrimination concordance index (C index) and calibration ratios of expected vs observed event rates were assessed at 10 years. Analyses were conducted by race, sex, and age groups. Results: The combined study sample included 62482 participants (median age, 61 years, 54% women, and 29% Black individuals). Discrimination C indexes were not significantly different for the 2 stroke-specific models (Framingham stroke, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.72-073; REGARDS self-report, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.72-0.74) vs the pooled cohort equations (0.72; 95% CI, 0.71-0.73): differences 0.01 or less (P values >.05) in the combined sample. Significant differences in discrimination were observed by race: the C indexes were 0.76 for all 3 models in White vs 0.69 in Black women (all P values
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)306-317
Number of pages12
JournalJAMA
Volume329
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 24 2023
Externally publishedYes

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Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2023-02-15

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