Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

P. Homola; V. Marchenko; A. Napolitano; R. Damian; R. Guzik; D. Alvarez-Castillo; S. Stuglik; O. Ruimi; O. Skorenok; J. Zamora-Saa; J. M. Vaquero; T. Wibig; M. Knap; K. Dziadkowiec; M. Karpiel; O. Sushchov; J. W. Mietelski; K. Gorzkiewicz; N. Zabari; K. Almeida Cheminant; B. Idźkowski; T. Bulik; G. Bhatta; N. Budnev; R. Kamiński; M. V. Medvedev; K. Kozak; O. Bar; Bibrzycki; M. Bielewicz; M. Frontczak; P. Kovács; B. Łozowski; J. Miszczyk; M. Niedźwiecki; L. del Peral; M. Piekarczyk; M. D.Rodriguez Frias; K. Rzecki; K. Smelcerz; T. Sośnicki; J. Stasielak; A. A. Tursunov

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J. M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J. W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida CheminantB. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M. V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovács, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M. D.Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak, A. A. Tursunov

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Abstract

The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. One-sentence summary: Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	106068
Journal	Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Volume	247
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068
State	Published - May 1 2023
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-05-24
Acknowledged KAUST grant number(s): OSR-2019-CRG8-4057
Acknowledgements: Visegrad Fund, Grant No. 21920298 (PH, AT); King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Office of Sponsored Research (OSR), Award OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 (AN); National ScienceCenter, Grant No. 2016/22/E/ST9/00061 (VM); National Science Center, Grant No. 2018/29/B/ST2/02576 (RK, ŁB, DAC); Foundation for Polish Science (FNP), International Research Agenda Programme AstroCeNT (MAB/2018/7), funded from the European Regional Development Fund (TB); ANID-Millennium Science Initiative Program - ICN2019 044 (JZS); AGH University of Krakow, Grant No. 16.16.120.773 for 2023 (KR, TS).We acknowledge the leading role in the CREDO Collaboration and the commitments to this research made by the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Science. We acknowledge the Pierre Auger Observatory for providing the scaler data (The Pierre Auger collaboration, 2011), the NMDB database (www.nmdb.eu), founded under the European Union's FP7 programme (contract no. 213007), and the PIs of individual neutron monitors at Moscow (Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and radio wave propagation IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia) (MOSCOW Neutron Monitor and Russia (MOSC) and Oulu (Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu, Finland) (Kananen et al. 1991; NMDB Oulu) for providing data. This research has been supported in part by the PLGrid Infrastructure - we warmly thank the staff at ACC Cyfronet AGH-UST for their always helpful supercomputing support. We thank Roger Clay, Dariusz Góra, Bohdan Hnatyk, Michał Ostrowski, Leszek Roszkowski, and Henryk Wilczyński for critical reading of the manuscript, and for their useful remarks and valuable discussions.
This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Atmospheric Science
Space and Planetary Science

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10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

Cite this

Homola, P., Marchenko, V., Napolitano, A., Damian, R., Guzik, R., Alvarez-Castillo, D., Stuglik, S., Ruimi, O., Skorenok, O., Zamora-Saa, J., Vaquero, J. M., Wibig, T., Knap, M., Dziadkowiec, K., Karpiel, M., Sushchov, O., Mietelski, J. W., Gorzkiewicz, K., Zabari, N., ... Tursunov, A. A. (2023). Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 247, 106068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

@article{481fe57e7f9c4d858e69b53c2a57f520,

title = "Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle",

abstract = "The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. One-sentence summary: Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum.",

author = "P. Homola and V. Marchenko and A. Napolitano and R. Damian and R. Guzik and D. Alvarez-Castillo and S. Stuglik and O. Ruimi and O. Skorenok and J. Zamora-Saa and Vaquero, {J. M.} and T. Wibig and M. Knap and K. Dziadkowiec and M. Karpiel and O. Sushchov and Mietelski, {J. W.} and K. Gorzkiewicz and N. Zabari and Cheminant, {K. Almeida} and B. Id{\'z}kowski and T. Bulik and G. Bhatta and N. Budnev and R. Kami{\'n}ski and Medvedev, {M. V.} and K. Kozak and O. Bar and Bibrzycki and M. Bielewicz and M. Frontczak and P. Kov{\'a}cs and B. {\L}ozowski and J. Miszczyk and M. Nied{\'z}wiecki and Peral, {L. del} and M. Piekarczyk and Frias, {M. D.Rodriguez} and K. Rzecki and K. Smelcerz and T. So{\'s}nicki and J. Stasielak and Tursunov, {A. A.}",

note = "KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-05-24 Acknowledged KAUST grant number(s): OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 Acknowledgements: Visegrad Fund, Grant No. 21920298 (PH, AT); King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Office of Sponsored Research (OSR), Award OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 (AN); National ScienceCenter, Grant No. 2016/22/E/ST9/00061 (VM); National Science Center, Grant No. 2018/29/B/ST2/02576 (RK, {\L}B, DAC); Foundation for Polish Science (FNP), International Research Agenda Programme AstroCeNT (MAB/2018/7), funded from the European Regional Development Fund (TB); ANID-Millennium Science Initiative Program - ICN2019 044 (JZS); AGH University of Krakow, Grant No. 16.16.120.773 for 2023 (KR, TS).We acknowledge the leading role in the CREDO Collaboration and the commitments to this research made by the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Science. We acknowledge the Pierre Auger Observatory for providing the scaler data (The Pierre Auger collaboration, 2011), the NMDB database (www.nmdb.eu), founded under the European Union's FP7 programme (contract no. 213007), and the PIs of individual neutron monitors at Moscow (Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and radio wave propagation IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia) (MOSCOW Neutron Monitor and Russia (MOSC) and Oulu (Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu, Finland) (Kananen et al. 1991; NMDB Oulu) for providing data. This research has been supported in part by the PLGrid Infrastructure - we warmly thank the staff at ACC Cyfronet AGH-UST for their always helpful supercomputing support. We thank Roger Clay, Dariusz G{\'o}ra, Bohdan Hnatyk, Micha{\l} Ostrowski, Leszek Roszkowski, and Henryk Wilczy{\'n}ski for critical reading of the manuscript, and for their useful remarks and valuable discussions. This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.",

year = "2023",

month = may,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "247",

pages = "106068",

journal = "Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics",

issn = "1364-6826",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",

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Homola, P, Marchenko, V, Napolitano, A, Damian, R, Guzik, R, Alvarez-Castillo, D, Stuglik, S, Ruimi, O, Skorenok, O, Zamora-Saa, J, Vaquero, JM, Wibig, T, Knap, M, Dziadkowiec, K, Karpiel, M, Sushchov, O, Mietelski, JW, Gorzkiewicz, K, Zabari, N, Cheminant, KA, Idźkowski, B, Bulik, T, Bhatta, G, Budnev, N, Kamiński, R, Medvedev, MV, Kozak, K, Bar, O, Bibrzycki, Bielewicz, M, Frontczak, M, Kovács, P, Łozowski, B, Miszczyk, J, Niedźwiecki, M, Peral, LD, Piekarczyk, M, Frias, MDR, Rzecki, K, Smelcerz, K, Sośnicki, T, Stasielak, J & Tursunov, AA 2023, 'Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle', Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 247, pp. 106068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

TY - JOUR

T1 - Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

AU - Homola, P.

AU - Marchenko, V.

AU - Napolitano, A.

AU - Damian, R.

AU - Guzik, R.

AU - Alvarez-Castillo, D.

AU - Stuglik, S.

AU - Ruimi, O.

AU - Skorenok, O.

AU - Zamora-Saa, J.

AU - Vaquero, J. M.

AU - Wibig, T.

AU - Knap, M.

AU - Dziadkowiec, K.

AU - Karpiel, M.

AU - Sushchov, O.

AU - Mietelski, J. W.

AU - Gorzkiewicz, K.

AU - Zabari, N.

AU - Cheminant, K. Almeida

AU - Idźkowski, B.

AU - Bulik, T.

AU - Bhatta, G.

AU - Budnev, N.

AU - Kamiński, R.

AU - Medvedev, M. V.

AU - Kozak, K.

AU - Bar, O.

AU - Bibrzycki,

AU - Bielewicz, M.

AU - Frontczak, M.

AU - Kovács, P.

AU - Łozowski, B.

AU - Miszczyk, J.

AU - Niedźwiecki, M.

AU - Peral, L. del

AU - Piekarczyk, M.

AU - Frias, M. D.Rodriguez

AU - Rzecki, K.

AU - Smelcerz, K.

AU - Sośnicki, T.

AU - Stasielak, J.

AU - Tursunov, A. A.

N1 - KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-05-24 Acknowledged KAUST grant number(s): OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 Acknowledgements: Visegrad Fund, Grant No. 21920298 (PH, AT); King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Office of Sponsored Research (OSR), Award OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 (AN); National ScienceCenter, Grant No. 2016/22/E/ST9/00061 (VM); National Science Center, Grant No. 2018/29/B/ST2/02576 (RK, ŁB, DAC); Foundation for Polish Science (FNP), International Research Agenda Programme AstroCeNT (MAB/2018/7), funded from the European Regional Development Fund (TB); ANID-Millennium Science Initiative Program - ICN2019 044 (JZS); AGH University of Krakow, Grant No. 16.16.120.773 for 2023 (KR, TS).We acknowledge the leading role in the CREDO Collaboration and the commitments to this research made by the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Science. We acknowledge the Pierre Auger Observatory for providing the scaler data (The Pierre Auger collaboration, 2011), the NMDB database (www.nmdb.eu), founded under the European Union's FP7 programme (contract no. 213007), and the PIs of individual neutron monitors at Moscow (Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and radio wave propagation IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia) (MOSCOW Neutron Monitor and Russia (MOSC) and Oulu (Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu, Finland) (Kananen et al. 1991; NMDB Oulu) for providing data. This research has been supported in part by the PLGrid Infrastructure - we warmly thank the staff at ACC Cyfronet AGH-UST for their always helpful supercomputing support. We thank Roger Clay, Dariusz Góra, Bohdan Hnatyk, Michał Ostrowski, Leszek Roszkowski, and Henryk Wilczyński for critical reading of the manuscript, and for their useful remarks and valuable discussions. This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

PY - 2023/5/1

Y1 - 2023/5/1

N2 - The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. One-sentence summary: Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum.

AB - The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. One-sentence summary: Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10754/691986

UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364682623000664

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85153847859&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

DO - 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

M3 - Article

SN - 1364-6826

VL - 247

SP - 106068

JO - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

JF - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

ER -

Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

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