Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J. M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J. W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida CheminantB. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M. V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovács, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M. D.Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak, A. A. Tursunov

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. One-sentence summary: Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)106068
JournalJournal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
StatePublished - May 1 2023
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-05-24
Acknowledged KAUST grant number(s): OSR-2019-CRG8-4057
Acknowledgements: Visegrad Fund, Grant No. 21920298 (PH, AT); King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Office of Sponsored Research (OSR), Award OSR-2019-CRG8-4057 (AN); National ScienceCenter, Grant No. 2016/22/E/ST9/00061 (VM); National Science Center, Grant No. 2018/29/B/ST2/02576 (RK, ŁB, DAC); Foundation for Polish Science (FNP), International Research Agenda Programme AstroCeNT (MAB/2018/7), funded from the European Regional Development Fund (TB); ANID-Millennium Science Initiative Program - ICN2019 044 (JZS); AGH University of Krakow, Grant No. for 2023 (KR, TS).We acknowledge the leading role in the CREDO Collaboration and the commitments to this research made by the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Science. We acknowledge the Pierre Auger Observatory for providing the scaler data (The Pierre Auger collaboration, 2011), the NMDB database (www.nmdb.eu), founded under the European Union's FP7 programme (contract no. 213007), and the PIs of individual neutron monitors at Moscow (Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and radio wave propagation IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia) (MOSCOW Neutron Monitor and Russia (MOSC) and Oulu (Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu, Finland) (Kananen et al. 1991; NMDB Oulu) for providing data. This research has been supported in part by the PLGrid Infrastructure - we warmly thank the staff at ACC Cyfronet AGH-UST for their always helpful supercomputing support. We thank Roger Clay, Dariusz Góra, Bohdan Hnatyk, Michał Ostrowski, Leszek Roszkowski, and Henryk Wilczyński for critical reading of the manuscript, and for their useful remarks and valuable discussions.
This publication acknowledges KAUST support, but has no KAUST affiliated authors.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Space and Planetary Science


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