Near Future Projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation under 1.5 C and 2.0 C Warming

Devanil Choudhury*, Debashis Nath, Wen Chen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


The Indian summer monsoon’s (ISM) response to low (1.5 C) and medium (2.0 C) warming scenarios are examined during the period 2021–2050 using 11 member ensembles of the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1-CAM5) datasets. We find that in the near-term period an increase in warming by 0.5 C will strengthen the monsoon circulation and precipitation over the Indian landmass and east Asia. Under the 1.5 C warming scenario, the ISM circulation will weaken, and precipitation will exhibit a decreasing trend, while the ISM precipitation and circulation will strengthen under the 2.0 C warming scenario. The strengthening of ISM under the 2.0 C warming scenario is due to the strengthening of the South China Sea (SCS) anticyclone and a high-pressure center near the Philippine Island. This high-pressure center over the SCS will facilitate a cross-basin strengthening of the easterly wind from the western Pacific Ocean/SCS to the equatorial Indian Ocean, which will, in turn, strengthen the transport of the Pacific-origin moisture to the Indian subcontinent and East Asia. This increase in moisture content over the Indian subcontinent will strengthen the monsoonal circulation and precipitation under the 2.0 C warming scenario.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number1081
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Funding: This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41961144016).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.


  • 1.5 C
  • 2.0 C
  • CESM1
  • Indian Ocean
  • Indian summer monsoon
  • internal climate variability
  • South China Sea

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Atmospheric Science


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