Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Jacob Schewe; Jens Heinke; Dieter Gerten; Ingjerd Haddeland; Nigel W. Arnell; Douglas B. Clark; Rutger Dankers; Stephanie Eisner; Balázs M. Fekete; Felipe J. Colón-González; Simon N. Gosling; Hyungjun Kim; Xingcai Liu; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Felix T. Portmann; Yusuke Satoh; Tobias Stacke; Qiuhong Tang; Yoshihide Wada; Dominik Wisser; Torsten Albrecht; Katja Frieler; Franziska Piontek; Lila Warszawski; Pavel Kabat

doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Jacob Schewe, Jens Heinke, Dieter Gerten, Ingjerd Haddeland, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Rutger Dankers, Stephanie Eisner, Balázs M. Fekete, Felipe J. Colón-González, Simon N. Gosling, Hyungjun Kim, Xingcai Liu, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Felix T. Portmann, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, Yoshihide Wada, Dominik WisserTorsten Albrecht, Katja Frieler, Franziska Piontek, Lila Warszawski, Pavel Kabat

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1311 Scopus citations

Abstract

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	3245-3250
Number of pages	6
Journal	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume	111
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110
State	Published - Mar 4 2014
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2023-09-18

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1073/pnas.1222460110

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Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Colón-González, F. J., Gosling, S. N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., ... Kabat, P. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 111(9), 3245-3250. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110

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title = "Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change",

abstract = "Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (",

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Schewe, J, Heinke, J, Gerten, D, Haddeland, I, Arnell, NW, Clark, DB, Dankers, R, Eisner, S, Fekete, BM, Colón-González, FJ, Gosling, SN, Kim, H, Liu, X, Masaki, Y, Portmann, FT, Satoh, Y, Stacke, T, Tang, Q, Wada, Y, Wisser, D, Albrecht, T, Frieler, K, Piontek, F, Warszawski, L & Kabat, P 2014, 'Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change', PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, vol. 111, no. 9, pp. 3245-3250. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110

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AU - Schewe, Jacob

AU - Heinke, Jens

AU - Gerten, Dieter

AU - Haddeland, Ingjerd

AU - Arnell, Nigel W.

AU - Clark, Douglas B.

AU - Dankers, Rutger

AU - Eisner, Stephanie

AU - Fekete, Balázs M.

AU - Colón-González, Felipe J.

AU - Gosling, Simon N.

AU - Kim, Hyungjun

AU - Liu, Xingcai

AU - Masaki, Yoshimitsu

AU - Portmann, Felix T.

AU - Satoh, Yusuke

AU - Stacke, Tobias

AU - Tang, Qiuhong

AU - Wada, Yoshihide

AU - Wisser, Dominik

AU - Albrecht, Torsten

AU - Frieler, Katja

AU - Piontek, Franziska

AU - Warszawski, Lila

AU - Kabat, Pavel

N1 - Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2023-09-18

PY - 2014/3/4

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N2 - Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (

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DO - 10.1073/pnas.1222460110

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VL - 111

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JO - PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

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IS - 9

ER -

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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