TY - JOUR
T1 - Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative
AU - Satoh, Yusuke
AU - Kahil, Taher
AU - Byers, Edward
AU - Burek, Peter
AU - Fischer, Günther
AU - Tramberend, Sylvia
AU - Greve, Peter
AU - Flörke, Martina
AU - Eisner, Stephanie
AU - Hanasaki, Naota
AU - Magnuszewski, Piotr
AU - Nava, Luzma Fabiola
AU - Cosgrove, William
AU - Langan, Simon
AU - Wada, Yoshihide
N1 - Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2023-09-18
PY - 2017/7/1
Y1 - 2017/7/1
N2 - This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.
AB - This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.
UR - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000503
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85026375199&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2016EF000503
DO - 10.1002/2016EF000503
M3 - Article
SN - 2328-4277
VL - 5
SP - 823
EP - 852
JO - Earth's Future
JF - Earth's Future
IS - 7
ER -