Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

Joseph Jon Frostad, QuynhAnh P. Nguyen, Mathew M. Baumann, Brigette F. Blacker, Laurie B. Marczak, Aniruddha Deshpande, Kirsten E. Wiens, Kate E. LeGrand, Kimberly B. Johnson, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Hassan Abolhassani, Lucas Guimaraes Abreu, Michael R. M. Abrigo, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Victor Adekanmbi, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour AlaneziJacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Vahid Alipour, Khalid A. Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Saeed Amini, Fatemeh Amiri, Dickson A. Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Marcel Ausloos, Getinet Ayano, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Ashish D. Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Michelle L. Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Dejana Braithwaite, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A. Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Josip Car, Rosario Cardenas, Felix Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Sarika Chaturvedi, Simiao Chen, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Saad M. A. Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K. Das, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Davila-Cervantes, Diego De Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Edgar Denova-Gutierrez, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Fariba Dorostkar, Leila Doshmangir, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Maha El Tantawi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ibtihal Fadhil, Nazir Fattahi, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Mansour Ghafourifard, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Tiffany K. Gill, Alessandra C. Goulart, Barbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Rajat Das Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutierrez, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah R. Hamadeh, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Behzad Heibati, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Nathaniel J. Henry, Claudiu Herteliu, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsairi, Guoqing Hu, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Chidozie C. D. Iwu, Jalil Jaafari, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Tahereh Javaheri, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S. Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Naser Kamyari, Tanuj Kanchan, Umesh Kapil, Neeti Kapoor, Gbenga A. Kayode, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yousef Saleh Khader, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maseer Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M. Khater, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gyu Ri Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Luke D. Knibbs, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, G. Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Faris Hasan Lami, Qing Lan, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Paul H. Lee, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Daiane Borges Machado, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mina Maheri, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Natalie Maria Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo, Benjamin K. Mayala, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Irmina Maria Michalek, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Maryam Mirzaei, Roya Mirzaei, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Abbas Mosapour, Simin Mouodi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Sandra B. Munro, Christopher J. L. Murray, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Sanjeev Nair, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T. Olagunju, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Mayowa O. Owolabi, P. A. Mahesh, Anamika Pandey, Eun-Cheol Park, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Hai Quang Pham, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Maarten J. Postma, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sowmya J. Rao, Davide Rasella, Prateek Rastogi, Goura Kishor Rath, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Morteza Rostamian, Enrico Rubagotti, Godfrey M. Rwegerera, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Biniyam Sahiledengle, Marwa Rashad Salem, Abdallah M. Samy, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, David C. Schwebel, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Saeed Shahabi, Amira A. Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S. Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Ranjitha S. Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Balbir Bagicha Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Yitagesu Sintayehu, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Leo Stockfelt, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Amir Taherkhani, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Saif Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Santosh Varughese, Francesco S. Violante, Bay Vo, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Yuan-Pang Wang, Catherine A. Welgan, Andrea Werdecker, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z. Younis, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Yunquan Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Michael Brauer, Simon I. Hay, Robert C. Reiner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)E1395-E1411
JournalLANCET GLOBAL HEALTH
Volume10
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 13 2022

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2022-12-06
Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Medicine

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