Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

Zhiqiang Gong, Muhammad Mubashar Dogar, Shaobo Qiao, Po Hu, Guolin Feng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations


This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)184-191
Number of pages8
JournalAtmospheric Research
StatePublished - Apr 5 2017

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2020-10-01
Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575082, 41530531, and 41475064) and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201306021).


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