High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

Hylke E. Beck*, Tim R. McVicar, Noemi Vergopolan, Alexis Berg, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Ambroise Dufour, Zhenzhong Zeng, Xin Jiang, Albert I.J.M. van Dijk, Diego G. Miralles

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901–1930 to 1991–2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991–2020 to 2071–2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen .

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number724
JournalScientific data
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, Springer Nature Limited.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Information Systems
  • Education
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Library and Information Sciences

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