Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia from CMIP6 Pseudo-global Warming Simulations

Thao Linh Tran, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Hai Bui, Thang Luong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this Pseudo-global Warming study, potential future changes in the Southeast Asia tropical cyclone (TC) exposure climatology are quantified. One hundred and seventeen landfalling TCs in the last 20 years are simulated with their current climate conditions and also with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble perturbed conditions under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 climate change scenarios. Our simulations suggest that landfalling TCs are projected to be 8% more intense at landfall, 2.8% faster and have smaller sizes by the end of the 21st century under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. In addition, TC landfall locations shift northward with tracks extending further inland toward Laos and Thailand. In particular, TC exposures, wind and rainfall impacts significantly increase in the northern Philippines, Taiwan, southwestern coast of China, and northern Vietnam; and significantly decrease in the southern areas of Southeast Asia and the southeastern coast of China.
Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalEarth's Future
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 17 2022

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2022-11-30
Acknowledgements: This article is based on part of the first author’s PhD thesis, which was supported by the Australian Government Endeavour Leadship Program (PhD scholarship) and a UNSW scholarship (Int’l MOUs PTFS - RSRE7073). The authors would like to thank the editor and two reviewers for the constructive feedback for improving the manuscript.

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