TY - JOUR
T1 - Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
AU - Elliott, Joshua
AU - Deryng, Delphine
AU - Müller, Christoph
AU - Frieler, Katja
AU - Konzmann, Markus
AU - Gerten, Dieter
AU - Glotter, Michael
AU - Flörke, Martina
AU - Wada, Yoshihide
AU - Best, Neil
AU - Eisner, Stephanie
AU - Fekete, Balázs M.
AU - Folberth, Christian
AU - Foster, Ian
AU - Gosling, Simon N.
AU - Haddeland, Ingjerd
AU - Khabarov, Nikolay
AU - Ludwig, Fulco
AU - Masaki, Yoshimitsu
AU - Olin, Stefan
AU - Rosenzweig, Cynthia
AU - Ruane, Alex C.
AU - Satoh, Yusuke
AU - Schmid, Erwin
AU - Stacke, Tobias
AU - Tang, Qiuhong
AU - Wisser, Dominik
N1 - Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2023-09-18
PY - 2014/3/4
Y1 - 2014/3/4
N2 - We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400- 1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
AB - We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400- 1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
UR - https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1222474110
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84895790926&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1222474110
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1222474110
M3 - Article
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 111
SP - 3239
EP - 3244
JO - PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
JF - PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
IS - 9
ER -