Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture

Andrea Toreti, Simona Bassu, Senthold Asseng, Matteo Zampieri, Andrej Ceglar, Conxita Royo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability.
Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalCommunications Biology
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 12 2022

Bibliographical note

KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2022-11-15
Acknowledgements: This research has been supported by the EU-H2020 MedGOLD project under the grant agreement n. 776467 and by the EU-H2020 MindStep project n. 817566. We thank D. Fumagalli and M. Bratu for their support with the simulations.

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