Assessing the Impact of a Movement Network on the Spatiotemporal Spread of Infectious Diseases

Birgit Schrödle, Leonhard Held*, Håvard Rue

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

21 Scopus citations


Linking information on a movement network with space-time data on disease incidence is one of the key challenges in infectious disease epidemiology. In this article, we propose and compare two statistical frameworks for this purpose, namely, parameter-driven (PD) and observation-driven (OD) models. Bayesian inference in PD models is done using integrated nested Laplace approximations, while OD models can be easily fitted with existing software using maximum likelihood. The predictive performance of both formulations is assessed using proper scoring rules. As a case study, the impact of cattle trade on the spatiotemporal spread of Coxiellosis in Swiss cows, 2004-2009, is finally investigated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)736-744
Number of pages9
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 2012
Externally publishedYes


  • INLA
  • Infectious disease counts
  • Network data
  • Observation-driven
  • Parameter-driven
  • Spatiotemporal

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • General Immunology and Microbiology
  • General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
  • Applied Mathematics


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