An Introduction to Uncertainty in the Development of Computational Models of Biological Processes

This chapter aims to provide an introduction to the different ways in which uncertainty can be dealt with computational modelling of biological processes. The first step is model establishment under uncertainty. Once models have been established, data can further be used to select which of the proposed models best meets the predefined criteria. Subsequently, parameter values can be optimized for a specific model configuration. Sensitivity analyses allow to assess the influence of the previous choices on the model output. Additionally, model adaptation permits to focus on specific aspects of the model without losing its global predictive capacity. Finally, predictions with the established models should also consider the effect of uncertainty in the model development process.